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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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