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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."